September 18, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:09 | 1:09 |
| Win Type ELO | 954 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +71 |
Rick Story earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:09, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Brian Foster was submitted.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 59 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 950 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Rick Story edged the striking exchanges with 18 vs 6 significant strikes, 30.5% vs 12.8% accuracy. Rick Story capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 4:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 822 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -178 | +178 |
Rick Story dominated Brian Foster on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:23 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 978 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +56 |
Rick Story demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rick Story capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Foster's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Rick Story started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Foster is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Foster | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.