July 11, 1996
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 999 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Don Frye's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Don Frye for the expected result. Had Brian Johnston pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:37 | 4:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 080 | 1 391 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +33 |
Don Frye earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:37, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 049 | 1 392 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Don Frye slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 68.8% vs 50.0% accuracy. Don Frye capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 997 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Don Frye controlled Brian Johnston on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 | 1 |
| Activity ELO | 1 018 | 1 493 |
| ELO Change | -3 | +31 |
Don Frye demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within 1 day since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Don Frye capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Johnston's 1-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 008 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +35 |
Don Frye continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Brian Johnston's now at 0.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Don Frye |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.