September 19, 1996
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Brian Johnston's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brian Johnston for the expected result. Had Reza Nasri pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:28 | 0:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 174 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +94 | -32 |
Brian Johnston secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:28 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 0 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 156 | 893 |
| ELO Change | +107 | -107 |
Brian Johnston slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 6 vs 0 significant strikes, 75.0% vs 0.0% accuracy. Brian Johnston capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 056 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Brian Johnston controlled Reza Nasri on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 078 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -20 |
Brian Johnston demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Brian Johnston capitalized on this activity level, while Reza Nasri's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Brian Johnston started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Reza Nasri is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Johnston | Reza Nasri |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.