May 12, 2020
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 142 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Brian Kelleher's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brian Kelleher for the expected result. Had Hunter Azure pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 053 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:40 | 3:40 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 230 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -27 |
Brian Kelleher gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 99 | 132 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 139 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -78 |
Hunter Azure controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (67 vs 32 total strikes), significant strike advantage (62 vs 29), superior accuracy (47.0% vs 29.3%). However, since Hunter Azure lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brian Kelleher's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:29 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 077 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Brian Kelleher landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 116 | 242 |
| Activity ELO | 1 137 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -17 |
Brian Kelleher demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brian Kelleher capitalized on this activity level, while Hunter Azure's 242-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Brian Kelleher extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Hunter Azure is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Hunter Azure |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 051 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.