May 11, 2018
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 136 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
John Lineker's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding John Lineker for the expected result. Had Brian Kelleher pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:43 | 3:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 192 | 1 431 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +46 |
John Lineker gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 102 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 233 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 113 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 092 | 1 457 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
John Lineker dominated the striking exchanges with 113 vs 58 total strikes, 102 vs 50 significant strikes, including 2 devastating knockdowns. John Lineker capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 1:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 102 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
John Lineker landed 2 knockdowns followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 108 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
John Lineker demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, John Lineker capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Kelleher's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
John Lineker extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Kelleher is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | John Lineker |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 034 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.