Brian Kelleher vs Mario Bautista

June 24, 2022

Bantamweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1035
(-48)
Brian Kelleher
Winner: Mario Bautista
Submission
Round 1 • 2:27

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Brian Kelleher-48
Mario Bautista+60
1102
(+60)
Mario Bautista

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -37Mario Bautista: +59

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Total UFC Fights156
Experience Gap9-9
Experience ELO1 0611 099
ELO Change-37+59
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What Happened

Mario Bautista overcame a 9-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Brian Kelleher.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -22Mario Bautista: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0211 045
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -50Mario Bautista: +88

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:272:27
Win Type ELO1 1041 175
ELO Change-50+88
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -48Mario Bautista: +48

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Significant Strikes Landed26
Significant Strikes Attempted317
Total Strikes Landed26
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO9691 087
ELO Change-48+48
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 35.3% vs 66.7% accuracy. Mario Bautista capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -156Mario Bautista: +156

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted02
Ground Control Time0:001:28
Ground Strikes Landed02
Ground ELO9521 214
ELO Change-156+156
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista dominated Brian Kelleher on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:28 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -27Mario Bautista: +55

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Days Since Last Fight112126
Activity ELO1 1131 088
ELO Change-27+55
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Mario Bautista capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Kelleher's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -23Mario Bautista: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 0411 060
ELO Change-23+28
💡

What Happened

Mario Bautista extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Kelleher is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Brian Kelleher: -22Mario Bautista: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricBrian KelleherMario Bautista
Weight ClassBantamweightBantamweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0191 045
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.