July 21, 2017
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 082 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Marlon Vera's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marlon Vera for the expected result. Had Brian Kelleher pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:18 | 2:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 083 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +79 |
Marlon Vera earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 013 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Brian Kelleher controlled the striking through superior accuracy (50.0% vs 33.3%). However, since Brian Kelleher lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Marlon Vera's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:04 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 010 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Marlon Vera edged out Brian Kelleher on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 012 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +39 |
Marlon Vera demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marlon Vera capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Kelleher's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +28 |
Marlon Vera extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Kelleher is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Marlon Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.