September 4, 2020
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Brian Kelleher's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brian Kelleher for the expected result. Had Ray Rodriguez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 052 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:39 | 0:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 224 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -22 |
Brian Kelleher locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:39 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 115 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 2 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 068 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 152 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -14 |
Brian Kelleher demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Brian Kelleher capitalized on this activity level, while Ray Rodriguez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Brian Kelleher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ray Rodriguez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Ray Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 050 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

