March 4, 2022
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 098 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +75 |
Umar Nurmagomedov overcame a 12-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Brian Kelleher.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:15 | 3:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +97 |
Umar Nurmagomedov earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 19 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 017 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -127 | +127 |
Umar Nurmagomedov controlled the striking exchanges with 21 vs 1 total strikes, 18 vs 1 significant strikes, 69.2% vs 5.3% accuracy. Umar Nurmagomedov capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 1:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 108 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Umar Nurmagomedov controlled Brian Kelleher on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:27 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 409 |
| Activity ELO | 1 140 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +26 |
Umar Nurmagomedov demonstrated extended layoff with 409 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Umar Nurmagomedov capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Kelleher's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 064 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +30 |
Umar Nurmagomedov extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Kelleher is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Kelleher | Umar Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.