August 27, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 071 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +38 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:26 | 2:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 076 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +98 |
Kelvin Gastelum earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:26, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 21 | 23 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 056 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Kelvin Gastelum controlled the striking exchanges with 14 vs 7 significant strikes, 60.9% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 953 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -131 | +131 |
Kelvin Gastelum dominated Brian Melancon on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:30 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 53 | 137 |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +43 |
Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Brian Melancon's 53-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Kelvin Gastelum extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brian Melancon is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

