July 5, 2013
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -96 |
Brian Melancon overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Seth Baczynski.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 132 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | +132 | -61 |
Brian Melancon earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 13 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 148 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +148 | -148 |
Brian Melancon controlled the striking exchanges with 24 vs 13 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 24.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Brian Melancon capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:40 | 0:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 084 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Brian Melancon landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Brian Melancon demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Brian Melancon capitalized on this activity level, while Seth Baczynski's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -25 |
Brian Melancon started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Seth Baczynski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Melancon | Seth Baczynski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.