July 28, 2017
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 220 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 091 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:59 | 2:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 320 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -19 |
Brian Ortega earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:59, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Renato Moicano was submitted.
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 65 | 109 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 220 | 252 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 111 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 232 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Renato Moicano controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (111 vs 65 total strikes), significant strike advantage (109 vs 65), superior accuracy (43.3% vs 29.5%). However, since Renato Moicano lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brian Ortega's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 224 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Brian Ortega edged out Renato Moicano on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 420 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 130 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -19 |
Brian Ortega demonstrated extended layoff with 420 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Brian Ortega capitalized on this activity level, while Renato Moicano's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 117 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -21 |
Brian Ortega extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Renato Moicano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brian Ortega | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

