June 21, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Rick Story's 9-fight experience advantage (10 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rick Story for the expected result. Had Brock Jardine pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 981 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Rick Story earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 51 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 125 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 67 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 1 255 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Rick Story controlled the striking exchanges with 67 vs 21 total strikes, 51 vs 18 significant strikes, 40.8% vs 30.0% accuracy. Rick Story capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:46 | 5:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 21 |
| Ground ELO | 954 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Rick Story dominated Brock Jardine on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 5:13 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 216 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +11 |
Rick Story demonstrated standard activity with 216 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rick Story capitalized on this activity level, while Brock Jardine's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 987 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Rick Story started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brock Jardine is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brock Jardine | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.