March 31, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 042 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Brock Larson's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Brock Larson for the expected result. Had Jesse Sanders pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:01 | 2:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 077 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -41 |
Brock Larson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:01, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 3 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 100 | 872 |
| ELO Change | +128 | -128 |
Brock Larson controlled the striking exchanges with 30 vs 0 total strikes, 13 vs 0 significant strikes, 65.0% vs 0.0% accuracy. Brock Larson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 142 | 887 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -113 |
Brock Larson dominated Jesse Sanders on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:27 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 840 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 018 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -21 |
Brock Larson demonstrated extended layoff with 840 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Brock Larson capitalized on this activity level, while Jesse Sanders's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 028 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Brock Larson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jesse Sanders is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Jesse Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

