December 12, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 012 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 005 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Brock Larson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 42 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 972 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Keita Nakamura controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (75 vs 42 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (16 vs 22). However, since Keita Nakamura lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brock Larson's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 20 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 10:02 | 0:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 029 | 872 |
| ELO Change | +128 | -128 |
Brock Larson dominated Keita Nakamura on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 10:02 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 437 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -22 |
Brock Larson demonstrated extended layoff with 437 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Brock Larson capitalized on this activity level, while Keita Nakamura's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Brock Larson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keita Nakamura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brock Larson | Keita Nakamura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.