July 2, 2010
UFC Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 213 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 236 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -15 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Brock Lesnar captured the UFC Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:19 | 2:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 402 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -55 |
Brock Lesnar earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:19, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Shane Carwin was submitted.
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 15 | 85 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 442 | 1 416 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Shane Carwin controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (61 vs 28 total strikes), significant strike advantage (40 vs 8), 1 knockdown. However, since Shane Carwin lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Brock Lesnar's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:34 | 2:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 31 |
| Ground ELO | 1 337 | 1 173 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Brock Lesnar controlled Shane Carwin on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:34 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 357 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 165 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Brock Lesnar demonstrated standard activity with 357 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Brock Lesnar capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Carwin's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 116 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -23 |
Brock Lesnar extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Carwin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brock Lesnar | Shane Carwin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.