May 29, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Roosevelt Roberts's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roosevelt Roberts for the expected result. Had Brok Weaver pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:26 | 3:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 979 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +47 |
Roosevelt Roberts earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:26, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Brok Weaver was submitted.
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 54 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 978 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Roosevelt Roberts controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 26 total strikes, 40 vs 14 significant strikes, 65.6% vs 29.2% accuracy. Roosevelt Roberts capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:20 | 3:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 902 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -114 | +114 |
Roosevelt Roberts dominated Brok Weaver on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:04 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Roosevelt Roberts demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Roosevelt Roberts capitalized on this activity level, while Brok Weaver's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Roosevelt Roberts extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Brok Weaver is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Brok Weaver | Roosevelt Roberts |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.