May 31, 2025
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 046 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Dustin Jacoby's 14-fight experience advantage (16 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Jacoby for the expected result. Had Bruno Lopes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:50 | 1:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 033 | 1 392 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +27 |
Dustin Jacoby earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:50, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -82 | +82 |
Dustin Jacoby controlled the striking exchanges with 17 vs 3 significant strikes, 58.6% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dustin Jacoby capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 103 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Dustin Jacoby did not secure a significant ground advantage against Bruno Lopes on the ground with 0:30 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 011 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +19 |
Dustin Jacoby demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Jacoby capitalized on this activity level, while Bruno Lopes's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Dustin Jacoby extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bruno Lopes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bruno Lopes | Dustin Jacoby |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

