March 19, 2021
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 922 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Bruno Silva's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Bruno Silva for the expected result. Had JP Buys pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:56 | 2:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 026 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +105 | -51 |
Bruno Silva gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 3 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 137 | 810 |
| ELO Change | +190 | -190 |
Bruno Silva dominated the striking exchanges with 62 vs 37 total strikes, 37 vs 17 significant strikes, 60.7% vs 30.4% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Bruno Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:51 | 1:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 005 | 922 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -78 |
Bruno Silva landed 3 knockdowns followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 000 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -23 |
Bruno Silva demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Bruno Silva capitalized on this activity level, while JP Buys's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
Bruno Silva started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. JP Buys is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bruno Silva | JP Buys |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 982 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.