March 15, 2024
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 068 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (19 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:23 | 4:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 177 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +63 |
Gerald Meerschaert earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:23, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Bryan Barberena was submitted.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 016 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Gerald Meerschaert slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 64.7% vs 32.4% accuracy. Gerald Meerschaert capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 5:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 867 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Gerald Meerschaert dominated Bryan Barberena on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 5:03 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 1 164 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Gerald Meerschaert demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Gerald Meerschaert capitalized on this activity level, while Bryan Barberena's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Gerald Meerschaert started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bryan Barberena is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 993 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

