March 17, 2023
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 139 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +37 |
Gunnar Nelson overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (14 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Bryan Barberena.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:51 | 4:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 278 | 1 417 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +61 |
Gunnar Nelson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:51, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 137 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Gunnar Nelson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 90.9% vs 58.3% accuracy. Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 023 | 1 359 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Gunnar Nelson dominated Bryan Barberena on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:13 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 1 215 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Gunnar Nelson demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Gunnar Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Bryan Barberena's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Gunnar Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bryan Barberena is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Gunnar Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.