July 30, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 053 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +64 |
Jason Witt overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Bryan Barberena.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 190 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Jason Witt earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 113 | 83 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 114 | 56 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 006 | 975 |
| ELO Change | -78 | +78 |
Bryan Barberena controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (114 vs 56 total strikes), significant strike advantage (50 vs 35). However, since Bryan Barberena lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jason Witt's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 18 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 5:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 048 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Jason Witt landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 322 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 071 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +53 |
Jason Witt demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jason Witt capitalized on this activity level, while Bryan Barberena's 322-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 024 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +27 |
Jason Witt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bryan Barberena is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Jason Witt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.