December 12, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 069 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 022 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:24 | 3:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 087 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -43 |
Bryan Barberena gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 60 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 106 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 119 | 902 |
| ELO Change | +119 | -119 |
Bryan Barberena dominated the striking exchanges with 106 vs 35 total strikes, 63 vs 24 significant strikes, 51.6% vs 40.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Bryan Barberena capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:24 | 2:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 060 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Bryan Barberena controlled Joe Ellenberger on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:24 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 022 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Bryan Barberena demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Bryan Barberena capitalized on this activity level, while Joe Ellenberger's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -22 |
Bryan Barberena started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joe Ellenberger is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Joe Ellenberger |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 022 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.