March 25, 2022
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 29 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 149 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -35 |
Bryan Barberena overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (14 vs 29 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Matt Brown.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 225 | 1 313 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Bryan Barberena receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 111 | 81 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 211 | 129 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 186 | 95 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 069 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Bryan Barberena dominated the striking exchanges with 186 vs 95 total strikes, 111 vs 81 significant strikes, 52.6% vs 62.8% accuracy. Bryan Barberena capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:57 | 5:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 089 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Bryan Barberena did not secure a significant ground advantage against Matt Brown on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:57 of control time, 5 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 281 |
| Activity ELO | 1 179 | 1 228 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -30 |
Bryan Barberena demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Bryan Barberena capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 281-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 078 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -27 |
Bryan Barberena extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.