January 29, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 073 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -25 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:06 | 3:06 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 127 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -56 |
Bryan Barberena earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:06, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sage Northcutt was submitted.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 45 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 141 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Bryan Barberena controlled the striking exchanges with 67 vs 27 total strikes, 26 vs 18 significant strikes, 54.2% vs 40.0% accuracy. Bryan Barberena capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:15 | 1:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 211 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +171 | -171 |
Bryan Barberena dominated Sage Northcutt on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:15 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 281 | 51 |
| Activity ELO | 1 029 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Bryan Barberena demonstrated standard activity with 281 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Bryan Barberena capitalized on this activity level, while Sage Northcutt's 51-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Bryan Barberena started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sage Northcutt is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Sage Northcutt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.