February 16, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 108 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 032 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:54 | 4:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 258 | 1 446 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +62 |
Vicente Luque gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 169 | 163 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 355 | 241 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 195 | 164 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 174 | 1 403 |
| ELO Change | -57 | +57 |
Bryan Barberena controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (195 vs 164 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (169 vs 163), superior accuracy (47.6% vs 67.6%), 1 knockdown. However, since Bryan Barberena lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Vicente Luque's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:31 | 0:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 158 | 1 323 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Vicente Luque landed 1 knockdown followed by 7 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 177 | 135 |
| Activity ELO | 1 108 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +30 |
Vicente Luque demonstrated solid activity levels with 135 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Vicente Luque capitalized on this activity level, while Bryan Barberena's 177-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +25 |
Vicente Luque extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bryan Barberena is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Vicente Luque |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 032 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.