May 13, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 112 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -37 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 050 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 184 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Bryan Barberena earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 120 | 79 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 231 | 136 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 164 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 178 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Bryan Barberena dominated the striking exchanges with 164 vs 82 total strikes, 120 vs 79 significant strikes. Bryan Barberena capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:26 | 1:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 246 | 1 337 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Bryan Barberena did not secure a significant ground advantage against Warlley Alves on the ground with 3:26 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +67 | -27 |
Bryan Barberena demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Bryan Barberena capitalized on this activity level, while Warlley Alves's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -26 |
Bryan Barberena extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Warlley Alves is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Barberena | Warlley Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 050 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.