July 20, 2012
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 051 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:39 | 1:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 116 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -34 |
Bryan Caraway earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:39, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mitch Gagnon was submitted.
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 82 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Bryan Caraway controlled the striking exchanges with 82 vs 45 total strikes, 11 vs 27 significant strikes, 24.4% vs 41.5% accuracy. Bryan Caraway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:19 | 3:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 155 | 934 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Bryan Caraway dominated Mitch Gagnon on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 5:19 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 046 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Bryan Caraway demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Bryan Caraway capitalized on this activity level, while Mitch Gagnon's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 047 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Bryan Caraway extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mitch Gagnon is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryan Caraway | Mitch Gagnon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.