December 9, 2022
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 203 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +41 |
Ilia Topuria overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Bryce Mitchell.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:10 | 3:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 233 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +57 |
Ilia Topuria earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:10, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Bryce Mitchell was submitted.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 82 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 226 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Ilia Topuria controlled the striking exchanges with 51.9% vs 43.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ilia Topuria capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 1:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 289 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Ilia Topuria controlled Bryce Mitchell on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:18 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 280 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 155 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +27 |
Ilia Topuria demonstrated standard activity with 266 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ilia Topuria capitalized on this activity level, while Bryce Mitchell's 280-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 160 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +49 |
Ilia Topuria continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Bryce Mitchell's now at 0.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 094 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

