December 15, 2023
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 216 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Josh Emmett's 5-fight experience advantage (14 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Emmett for the expected result. Had Bryce Mitchell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:57 | 1:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 256 | 1 456 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +74 |
Josh Emmett earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:57, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 172 | 1 449 |
| ELO Change | -86 | +86 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 2 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 326 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 164 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +27 |
Josh Emmett demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Josh Emmett capitalized on this activity level, while Bryce Mitchell's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 160 | 1 192 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Josh Emmett started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Bryce Mitchell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Bryce Mitchell | Josh Emmett |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

