January 18, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 085 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
CB Dollaway's 10-fight experience advantage (11 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding CB Dollaway for the expected result. Had Daniel Sarafian pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 141 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with CB Dollaway receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 62 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 152 | 98 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 020 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
CB Dollaway controlled the striking exchanges with 73 vs 41 total strikes, 62 vs 38 significant strikes. CB Dollaway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:26 | 1:57 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 200 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
CB Dollaway controlled Daniel Sarafian on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:26 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 176 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -12 |
CB Dollaway demonstrated standard activity with 239 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, CB Dollaway capitalized on this activity level, while Daniel Sarafian's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
CB Dollaway extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Daniel Sarafian is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Daniel Sarafian |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

