December 19, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 292 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Lyoto Machida's 4-fight experience advantage (19 vs 15 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lyoto Machida for the expected result. Had CB Dollaway pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 063 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:02 | 1:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 263 | 1 553 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +42 |
Lyoto Machida earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:02, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 194 | 1 581 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Lyoto Machida controlled the striking exchanges with 12 vs 0 significant strikes, 63.2% vs 0.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lyoto Machida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 253 | 1 375 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +49 |
Lyoto Machida landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 234 | 1 394 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +24 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while CB Dollaway's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Lyoto Machida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. CB Dollaway is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.