December 18, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 050 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +32 |
Nate Marquardt's 3-fight experience advantage (20 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nate Marquardt for the expected result. Had CB Dollaway pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:28 | 0:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 189 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +83 |
Nate Marquardt gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 060 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Nate Marquardt controlled the striking exchanges with 59.3% vs 42.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Marquardt capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 160 | 1 231 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 239 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 192 | 1 198 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +30 |
Nate Marquardt demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nate Marquardt capitalized on this activity level, while CB Dollaway's 239-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 053 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Nate Marquardt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. CB Dollaway is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | CB Dollaway | Nate Marquardt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

