January 18, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 940 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:50 | 1:50 |
| Win Type ELO | 928 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +46 |
Francisco Trinaldo earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:50, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. CJ Keith was submitted.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 5 | 27 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 907 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Francisco Trinaldo edged the striking exchanges with 27 vs 5 total strikes, 12 vs 3 significant strikes, 63.2% vs 33.3% accuracy. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:07 | 3:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 871 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Francisco Trinaldo dominated CJ Keith on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:59 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 212 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 961 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +48 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while CJ Keith's 212-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 960 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Francisco Trinaldo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. CJ Keith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.