June 21, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Ramsey Nijem's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ramsey Nijem for the expected result. Had CJ Keith pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:29 | 2:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 958 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +94 |
Ramsey Nijem earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 7 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 945 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
CJ Keith controlled the striking through superior accuracy (71.4% vs 33.3%). However, since CJ Keith lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ramsey Nijem's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 1:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 961 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Ramsey Nijem edged out CJ Keith on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:04 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 237 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Ramsey Nijem demonstrated standard activity with 237 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ramsey Nijem capitalized on this activity level, while CJ Keith's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Ramsey Nijem extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. CJ Keith is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | CJ Keith | Ramsey Nijem |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

