March 29, 2025
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 897 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +32 |
Edgar Chairez overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran CJ Vergara.
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 956 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 928 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +69 |
Edgar Chairez earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 795 | 972 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Edgar Chairez slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 29.6% vs 46.2% accuracy. Edgar Chairez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:16 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 857 | 955 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 987 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Edgar Chairez demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Edgar Chairez capitalized on this activity level, while CJ Vergara's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 963 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Edgar Chairez started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. CJ Vergara is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | CJ Vergara | Edgar Chairez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 956 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.