March 20, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 946 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 957 | 985 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 915 | 989 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Leonardo Mafra earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 94 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 101 | 191 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 151 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 894 | 942 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Leonardo Mafra dominated the striking exchanges with 151 vs 52 total strikes, 94 vs 44 significant strikes. Leonardo Mafra capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:56 | 6:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 823 | 978 |
| ELO Change | -120 | +120 |
Leonardo Mafra dominated Cain Carrizosa on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 6:53 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 249 |
| Activity ELO | 957 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +27 |
Leonardo Mafra demonstrated standard activity with 249 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Leonardo Mafra capitalized on this activity level, while Cain Carrizosa's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 957 | 990 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Leonardo Mafra started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cain Carrizosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cain Carrizosa | Leonardo Mafra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 957 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.