February 6, 2009
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 088 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Cain Velasquez's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Cain Velasquez for the expected result. Had Denis Stojnic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 061 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:34 | 2:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 241 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -20 |
Cain Velasquez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 140 | 39 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 124 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 383 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Cain Velasquez dominated the striking exchanges with 124 vs 8 total strikes, 88 vs 7 significant strikes, 62.9% vs 17.9% accuracy. Cain Velasquez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:28 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 181 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Cain Velasquez controlled Denis Stojnic on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:28 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 106 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Cain Velasquez demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Cain Velasquez capitalized on this activity level, while Denis Stojnic's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 074 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Cain Velasquez extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Denis Stojnic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Denis Stojnic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.