February 16, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 257 | 1 280 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +50 |
Francis Ngannou overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Cain Velasquez.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 293 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:26 | 0:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 609 | 1 721 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +155 |
Francis Ngannou secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:26 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 615 | 1 733 |
| ELO Change | -150 | +150 |
Francis Ngannou slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 6 vs 1 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 33.3% accuracy. Francis Ngannou capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 412 | 1 348 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 954 | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 1 289 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +65 |
Francis Ngannou demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Francis Ngannou capitalized on this activity level, while Cain Velasquez's 954-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 258 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +32 |
Francis Ngannou extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cain Velasquez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Francis Ngannou |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 157 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.