July 18, 2008
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 062 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -34 |
Cain Velasquez overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 5 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jake O'Brien.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 200 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +105 | -46 |
Cain Velasquez earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:02, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 354 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +105 | -105 |
Cain Velasquez dominated the striking exchanges with 79 vs 1 total strikes, 24 vs 1 significant strikes. Cain Velasquez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:53 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 23 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Cain Velasquez controlled Jake O'Brien on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:53 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 086 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -26 |
Cain Velasquez demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Cain Velasquez capitalized on this activity level, while Jake O'Brien's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -23 |
Cain Velasquez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jake O'Brien is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Cain Velasquez | Jake O'Brien |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.