May 3, 2024
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -12 | 12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 226 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -28 |
Caio Borralho overcame a 12-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Paul Craig.
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 118 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:10 | 2:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 372 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | +117 | -57 |
Caio Borralho gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 48 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 269 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Caio Borralho controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 22 total strikes, 36 vs 22 significant strikes, 72.0% vs 45.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Caio Borralho capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:19 | 0:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 296 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Caio Borralho did not secure a significant ground advantage against Paul Craig on the ground with 0:19 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 208 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Caio Borralho demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Caio Borralho capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Craig's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 179 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -18 |
Caio Borralho continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Paul Craig's now at 0.
| Metric | Caio Borralho | Paul Craig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 118 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

