April 26, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 953 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Don'Tale Mayes's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Don'Tale Mayes for the expected result. Had Caio Machado pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 938 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Don'Tale Mayes earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 76 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 159 | 183 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Caio Machado controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (76 vs 67), superior accuracy (47.8% vs 36.6%). However, since Caio Machado lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Don'Tale Mayes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:36 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 928 | 959 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Don'Tale Mayes did not secure a significant ground advantage against Caio Machado on the ground with 0:36 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 964 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +29 |
Don'Tale Mayes demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Don'Tale Mayes capitalized on this activity level, while Caio Machado's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 961 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Don'Tale Mayes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Caio Machado is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Caio Machado | Don'Tale Mayes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

