June 7, 2013
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 016 | 927 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -29 |
Caio Magalhaes overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Karlos Vemola.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:49 | 2:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 035 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -50 |
Caio Magalhaes earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:49, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Karlos Vemola was submitted.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 52 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 980 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Karlos Vemola controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (30 vs 21). However, since Karlos Vemola lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Caio Magalhaes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:29 | 4:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 29 |
| Ground ELO | 1 029 | 898 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Caio Magalhaes controlled Karlos Vemola on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:29 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 365 | 332 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -23 |
Caio Magalhaes demonstrated extended layoff with 365 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Caio Magalhaes capitalized on this activity level, while Karlos Vemola's 332-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -21 |
Caio Magalhaes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Karlos Vemola is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Karlos Vemola |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.