April 18, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 082 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Caio Magalhaes's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Caio Magalhaes for the expected result. Had Luke Zachrich pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:44 | 0:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 169 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -32 |
Caio Magalhaes secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:44 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 18 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 139 | 874 |
| ELO Change | +126 | -126 |
Caio Magalhaes controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 3 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 27.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Caio Magalhaes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 145 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Caio Magalhaes landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 068 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -19 |
Caio Magalhaes demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Caio Magalhaes capitalized on this activity level, while Luke Zachrich's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Caio Magalhaes extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luke Zachrich is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Caio Magalhaes | Luke Zachrich |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.