January 15, 2021
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 24 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 244 | 1 364 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Max Holloway's 15-fight experience advantage (24 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Max Holloway for the expected result. Had Calvin Kattar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 085 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 371 | 1 607 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Max Holloway earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 133 | 445 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 283 | 744 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 134 | 447 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 335 | 1 579 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Max Holloway dominated the striking exchanges with 447 vs 134 total strikes, 445 vs 133 significant strikes, 59.8% vs 47.0% accuracy. Max Holloway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 295 | 1 451 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Max Holloway did not secure a significant ground advantage against Calvin Kattar on the ground with 0:27 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 186 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 206 | 1 447 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +12 |
Max Holloway demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Max Holloway capitalized on this activity level, while Calvin Kattar's 186-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 119 | 1 500 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +5 |
Max Holloway started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Calvin Kattar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Calvin Kattar | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 077 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.