February 24, 2023
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 985 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Joe Solecki's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Solecki for the expected result. Had Carl Deaton pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:55 | 4:55 |
| Win Type ELO | 978 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +34 |
Joe Solecki earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:55, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Carl Deaton was submitted.
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 49 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 969 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Joe Solecki controlled the striking exchanges with 49 vs 13 total strikes, 25.0% vs 8.3% accuracy. Joe Solecki capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 8:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 946 | 1 235 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Joe Solecki dominated Carl Deaton on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 8:51 of control time, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 267 |
| Activity ELO | 985 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Joe Solecki demonstrated standard activity with 267 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Joe Solecki capitalized on this activity level, while Carl Deaton's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +19 |
Joe Solecki extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carl Deaton is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carl Deaton | Joe Solecki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.