December 29, 2017
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 071 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Carla Esparza's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Carla Esparza for the expected result. Had Cynthia Calvillo pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 077 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 147 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Carla Esparza earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 48 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 138 | 112 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 026 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Carla Esparza edged the striking exchanges with 48 vs 38 significant strikes. Carla Esparza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 4:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 11 |
| Ground ELO | 1 253 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Carla Esparza edged out Cynthia Calvillo on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 0:21 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 088 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -27 |
Carla Esparza demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Carla Esparza capitalized on this activity level, while Cynthia Calvillo's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 059 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -24 |
Carla Esparza extended her 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Cynthia Calvillo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Cynthia Calvillo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.