May 8, 2020
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 112 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Carla Esparza's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Carla Esparza for the expected result. Had Michelle Waterson-Gomez pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 091 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 150 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Carla Esparza receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 98 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 024 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Carla Esparza slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Carla Esparza capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:46 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 239 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Carla Esparza controlled Michelle Waterson-Gomez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:46 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 210 |
| Activity ELO | 1 134 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Carla Esparza demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Carla Esparza capitalized on this activity level, while Michelle Waterson-Gomez's 210-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 093 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Carla Esparza extended her 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michelle Waterson-Gomez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Michelle Waterson-Gomez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.