February 18, 2017
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Randa Markos's 2-fight experience advantage (6 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Randa Markos for the expected result. Had Carla Esparza pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 035 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 052 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Randa Markos receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 132 | 110 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 951 | 997 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Randa Markos controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 37 total strikes, 48 vs 32 significant strikes, 43.6% vs 24.2% accuracy. Randa Markos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:46 | 0:18 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 21 |
| Ground ELO | 1 176 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Randa Markos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Carla Esparza on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:18 of control time, 21 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 303 | 184 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Randa Markos demonstrated standard activity with 184 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Randa Markos capitalized on this activity level, while Carla Esparza's 303-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Randa Markos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Carla Esparza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Randa Markos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.