May 6, 2022
UFC Women's Strawweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 218 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (14 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 227 | 1 306 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -32 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Carla Esparza captured the UFC Women's Strawweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 269 | 1 419 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Carla Esparza receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 133 | 136 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 30 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 215 | 1 372 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Rose Namajunas controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (37 vs 30). However, since Rose Namajunas lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Carla Esparza's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 393 | 1 434 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Carla Esparza edged out Rose Namajunas on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 0:22 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 350 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 229 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Carla Esparza demonstrated standard activity with 350 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Carla Esparza capitalized on this activity level, while Rose Namajunas's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 219 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -23 |
Carla Esparza continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Rose Namajunas's now at 0.
| Metric | Carla Esparza | Rose Namajunas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 132 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.